The past few months saw world total rubber supply rising but at a slower pace compared in the past few years. In the same manner, world natural rubber supply expanded to 11.3 million tonnes in September 2012, up by 3 percent. Prices, however, have been falling.
He presented several scenario and the factors that would affect the global rubber industry in the future. These scenario are based on different possible world economic outlooks for 2013-2022 of the International Monetary Fund.
But what these scenario lead to is an anticipation of a sharp recovery of the rubber market in the years 2013 - 2014 due to higher demand. The accelerating world economic growth will support faster and higher demand for rubber. Also, natural rubber supply potential based on normal production will continue to increase starting this year. Asian region will continue to dominate in natural production.
The positive outlook, especially for natural rubber, is attributed in part to the monetary and fiscal stimulus from Japan to China, while the U.S. will accelerate a global recovery and boost raw-material demand. Call for unlimited monetary easing and a 2 percent inflation target by the new Prime Minister of Japan has sent the yen to a 28-month low against the dollar, helping exporters such as Toyota Motor Corp., boost sales overseas, leading to stronger demand for the commodity used in tyres. As China’s economy has been on a recovery trajectory, demand from the auto sector is also expected to recover.
